By Nick Simonson

The mallard is perhaps the most noted duck species among hunters and conservationists, known for its shimmering emerald head, large migratory flocks in fall that fuel legendary hunts, and the “quack” often associated with waterfowl in movies, TV shows and other media, including that cell phone ringtone tied to that one die-hard greenhead hunter in every group of hunting buddies. But this most common, pursued, and headlining species of waterfowl in the upper Midwest is facing a decline that outpaces many other bird species, and once again raises the alarm for their dwindling habitat in the region dubbed America’s Duck Factory, according to John Palarski, Migratory Game Bird Management Supervisor with the North Dakota Game & Fish Department (NDG&F).

“In talking about averages, I really like to focus in on the 1994 to 2016 average, and that’s what we consider to be the heyday of ducks here in North Dakota. That’s when we had really high abundance, we had ample wetlands, we also had a bunch of grass  on the landscape too, mainly in the form of CRP,” Palarski explains of the factors which drove high duck numbers overall and good mallard production at their recent height.

Mallards are grassland nesting  birds, requiring not only the water which pothole sloughs across the prairie provide for food and brood rearing, but also areas of nearby cover provided by stands of grass which protect their nests, eggs and young from the prying eyes of avian predators such as raptors and crows and land mammals like skunks and foxes. While the decrease in these small waters on the landscape in the upper Midwest has been ongoing for more than 70 years, the recent loss of conservation reserve program (CRP) acres of grassland plantings in marginally productive farm acres, has greatly exacerbated the recent downturn in mallard numbers throughout the central flyway of the United States and Canada, as reflected in recent surveys.

“While we are doing our state survey here in May with NDG&F, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is also flying their survey, and they are counting ducks across all of the major breeding areas of North America. So that’s really important to look out, zoom out, and pay attention to what those surveys are picking up,” Palarski relates of the  survey, adding recent nationwide results pertaining to mallards are off significantly like those in North Dakota, “we’ve seen some pretty pronounced decreases with a couple of species. Of course, the duck that everybody really cares about is mallards. They’re down almost half from their peaks in that 2016, 2015 time period. So that’s indicative of longer term trends we’ve seen, say over the last five to 10 years; just some really steep declines in our midcontinent duck population, especially ones that people really care about like mallards.”

According to the results of the 2025 FWS Waterfowl Population Status Report, in which agents survey the spring numbers of various waterfowl species across the country, the agency estimated the continental breeding population of mallards at 6.6 million birds, 17 percent lower than the long-term average, and about half the population tallied in 2015, a drop of 45 percent in just a decade.  While numbers were up in the 2024 count, tallies dropped consistently for the nine annual surveys prior to that one.

The 2025 NDG&F spring breeding duck survey exhibited a 26 percent decline from the prior year, and the lowest estimated breeding population on record since 1993. On a longer timeframe, North Dakota’s average breeding population of mallards from 2001 to 2020 was approximately 916,000, while the average dropped to an estimated 538,000 birds from 2021 to 2025, or an approximate 40 percent decline, in just a quarter of the time.  And while NDG&F breeding duck survey numbers this spring showcased a bright point in 2026, with mallards jumping seven percent year over year, Palarski ties the overall longer downward trend for mallards specifically – and this year’s first dip below the state’s long term average of total breeding duck species on the landscape since 1993 – to a rapid decrease of grassland on the prairie, along with loss of wetland habitat.

“We did get a pretty significant snow event in early April, and for early migrating species like mallards and pintails, they arrived here in North Dakota looking at pretty decent conditions,” Palarski explains of what may have influenced the uptick in mallard numbers this spring’s survey, adding, “for mallards and pintails they were actually up from last year, mallards were up about 7 percent and pintails were up almost 24 percent from last year and that’s just kind of an artifact of those earlier improved conditions we had from last year.”

Nationally, the numbers maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reflect that loss of grassland habitat vital to mallard populations, showing acres enrolled in CRP across the states of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota – which make up the bulk of the prairie pothole region – falling by nearly a third in just five years; from a peak of 8.3 million acres in 2007 to just 5.7 million acres in 2013, with little restoration after that point either through the federal program or similar state idling or habitat offerings. National numbers maintained by the federal agency show CRP enrollment nationwide has slid from its apex in 2007 at 36.8 million acres, to just 24.8 million as of the general signup in March 2024.

The next survey by NDG&F will be its summer duck brood survey, conducted in mid-July where biologists for the agency will travel established transects, counting the number of ducklings in this summer’s broods for various waterfowl species.  That tally along with the May breeding numbers will provide resident hunters with an early fall forecast as to what they can expect in terms of hunting success.

Simonson is the lead writer and editor of Dakota Edge Outdoors.

Featured Photo: Breeding numbers of mallards in North Dakota were up seven percent year-over-year in the 2026 NDG&F spring breeding duck survey, a bright spot amidst years of declines in the state and nationwide, likely tied to limited habitat. Simonson Photo.